Mobile telephony has always been a slightly strange industry.  I have seen sales projections made by Nokia in 1995, confidently predicting that by 2005 there would be 35 million mobile handsets in use worldwide.  That goes down as something of an 'upside miss', to use the fashionable parlance.  Similarly, nobody predicted how the now ubiquitous SMS would come to be such a valuable earner for the operators, nor how it would become such a useful tool to businesses - I have received two text messages this morning informing me about work being carried out on my fixed telephone line, to give an example.

Recently, the mobile carriers seem to be struggling to define their offer.  Picture messaging didn't really take off in the predicted manner.  Video calling has been an even bigger flop - in fact the only time I have ever seen someone using the feature was on a train in Sweden five years ago where two deaf people were signing to each other.  Over recent years, threats to revenues seem to be increasing much more quickly than opportunities to generate more cash.

It's a little remarked upon fact that Vodafone contract customers in the UK and Germany have been quietly agreeing to a clause which states that VoIP services can be barred at the operator's discretion.  So now that Nokia have released the super-featured N95 phone, it is no surprise that the VoIP software is unable to work on Vodafone networks.

The only operators who are currently having anything to do with VoIP services in the UK are T-Mobile and 3.  Even then, it is only 3  that are actively promoting VoIP services through their agreement with Skype.  T-Mobile prefer to give a more subtle message in their advertising by hinting that the whole internet is available to its subscribers - in other words, they won't restrict access to VoIP services but just don't tell anyone.

VoIP and, to a lesser extent, WiFi are two technologies that mobile operators have never been able to get to grips with.  The prevailing dogma is that both hurt the only measurement that counts, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU).  VoIP is the biggest pain because it takes those nice expensive voice minutes and turns then into significantly cheaper Megabytes.  This puts the carriers in a quandary.  On the one hand they need to supplement falling voice revenues with income from data services.  However, promoting VoIP services too actively will see voice revenues fall even faster while only providing a moderate rise in income from carrying data across their networks.

WiFi, while being the lesser evil, is attracting valuable data traffic away from the mobile operator's networks completely - only T-Mobile have a truly extensive installation of WiFi hot spots thanks to their position as being the only pan-European mobile operator to still operate under the umbrella of an incumbent fixed-line operator, Deutsche-Telekom.  Given the fact that more WiFi networks are being designed to carry VoIP traffic and that more and more handsets are becoming available with built-in WiFi connectivity options, there is no wonder the carriers are nervous.

Strategically, I think that 3 and T-Mobile are taking a much more sensible stance on the use of mobile internet services than can be said of Vodafone or Orange.  VoIP and WiFi are not going to go away.  And, frankly, users are no more prepared to put up with a restrictive 'walled-garden' approach to internet services nowadays than they were 5 or 6 years ago when they deserted AOL in droves.

Brand loyalty is pretty low when it comes to choosing a mobile network, so carriers need to embrace the kinds of services that their customers want, rather than trying to push the kinds of services that will (in theory at least) make them the most money.  There is no precedent for people watching television on tiny screens, just as there was no precedent for video calling.  Even a casual glance into the window of any high street electrical retailer will show that there is only a demand for bigger and bigger TV screens - so don't fool yourselves that mobile TV is a sure-fire winner.  Rather than charging a premium for a service to transmit pictures or video clips between handsets, why not provide a low cost connection direct to flickr or YouTube instead?  Google's entry into the mobile market is imminent.  You can bet your life that they will be tying in all sorts of innovative services into their offer, services that have already been developed and are ready to roll - Maps, Talk, Mail, Picassa, YouTube, Blogger, Calendar, News, oh and er, Search.

It's time to open up, get inventive and enjoy the ride.